Why Micah Zenko’s “Red Team” Lives in The Serendipity Economy

Succeeding by Thinking like the Enemy.


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Why Micah Zenko’s “Red Team” Lives in The Serendipity Economy

I was listening to a Hear & Now interview with Micah Zenko, author of Red Team: How to Succeed By Thinking Like the Enemy. It struck me that many of the issues related to terrorism and cyber attacks stem from the propensity of those working in the management of intelligence systems, and managing systems that require security, do so under industrial age economic models rather than the more emergent model of The Serendipity Economy, a set of principals that those perpetrating the crimes tend to live under, even if they don’t know it.

The Serendipity Economy was created to explain why it is impossible to determine the value of horizontal technology investments, in particular knowledge management and collaboration ahead of their deployment. This is because much of the value these systems is emergent.  The threats we face in national security, personal security and technology security also fits into these principals. Here is how I see the principals of The Serendipity Economy aligning with the various threats we face.

The process of creation is distinct from value realisation. The creation of the tools of attack are significantly different than the deployment of the tools. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with conceiving computer virus, or a new improvised weapon. Those that combat these threats must be able to conceive of them, in order to thwart them. The general social or economic factors that lead to or facilitate such an idea or even the development of an idea, are not, in and of themselves, a threat. In The Serendipity Economy the process of conceiving an attack vector, and deploying, are two different processes. The analog statement for threat development might be: The creation of a threat is distinct from the realisation of the threat.
Value realisation is displaced in time from the act that initiated the value. Rarely does the maker of a tool of terror or other attack vector create the item using industrial-like methods where each item is launched at a target upon creation. What typically happens is that these items are created and then stored for later use. This is a parallel with, for instance, the creation of a PowerPoint presentation that isn’t given for weeks or months. Analog: The realisation of a threat is displaced in time from the act of creating the threat.

Value is not fixed, and cannot be forecasted. This principal looks generally at Serendipitous Activity and states basically that at the onset of any serendipitous activity no one can determine what value will be derived from it. Say you suggest something in a social network. You have no idea who will read it, comment on it, perhaps be inspired by it, or inspired by you posting it, and what, if anything, will come of that activity. No standard expresses a unit of serendipity. The outcome of serendipity range from zero, to any arbitrarily large number. In terrorism and hacking, this principal applies to those developing the threats, in that they can’t know, until they are deployed, what havoc they will wreak, if any. Analog: The impact of a threat is not fixed, and cannot be forecasted. (Note: These first three principals offer a stark contrast between asymmetrical warfare and traditional industrial warfare. In World War II, for instance, the production of airplanes, rifles or guns, could be thought of, at least in the aggregate, as being pointed at a particular strategic objective. It would take X amount of hardware and person-power to overcome the enemy. In asymmetrical warfare it is unknown what is required to overcome the enemy, regardless of which side is defining the term enemy. While the ultimate goal may be the destruction of the other side, the approach is emergent, opportunistic and compartmentalised. We have no idea who will take up the making of an improvised weapon, and if they make one, where it will be set off.)

The measure of value requires external validation. This Serendipity Economy principal applies to both those creating threats, and those guarding against them. As Zenko states in his interview, you can’t grade your own work.†Meaning that  those deploying countermeasures, or evaluating threat assessments, do so with assumptions and biases in place that move them toward not seeing what they need to see. The industrial economy mentality of streamlining and creating efficiencies is diametrically opposed to the emergent and chaotic goals of terrorists and hackers. Built-in measure look for the things to be there that we believe should be there, and to look for very specific things that should not.It is, in fact, the precision and mechanical, near repetitive nature of the safeguards that make them so easy to overcome. In the end, those internal measures don’t matter. What matters is the external validation that the system has not been compromised. For the attackers, the reaction that an attack evokes determine its effectiveness (going back to principal three, neither of those future states can be determined at the onset).  Analog: The impact of a threat requires external validation.

Looking at a network in the present cannot anticipate either its potential for value or any actual value it may produce. Looking at a collaborative network at any point in time will not reveal the value of future collaboration, or the value of collaborations currently underway. This principal translates easily to populations and threats. Looking at any population will not yield any insight into the potential for a threat. There may be statistical probabilities that a threat will occur, which is more specific than can be provided for any collaborative work activity. While is may be possible to say that for every 1M people X number of terrorist activities will occur, we cannot, for instance, say that for that same population, X number of innovative technology breakthroughs will occur. The ability to apply probability to threats does not alter the principals because it offers no actual predictive, actionable insight. A probability, even if it proves true, saves no lives nor does it protect assets. In the most recent attacks in Paris, there was no knowing that ISIS would target Paris next. There might be a high probability of a Western-facing attack, but the sheer number of elements in play make it impossible to predict the next move. Analog: Looking at a network or population in the present cannot anticipate either its potential threat or any actual damage it may inflict.
Serendipity may enter at any point in the value web, and it may change the configuration of the web at any time. This principal is particularly interesting, for instance, when examining radicalisation. There is no way to anticipate when someone will become radicalised, or radicalised enough to act on their changed mindset. Even further, once that person has become radicalised there is no way to anticipate how their new mindset will affect what ever communities (networks) to which they belong. In collaboration, we look to new entrants to perhaps, find value in existing content that hasn’t been discovered before. A person serendipitously discovers an insight, previously overlooked, and because of a unique skill or ability, transforms previously inert content into something of value. Radicalisation transforms previously inert people into potential triggers or weapons, not for value, but for destruction. Analog: Serendipity may enter at any point in a network, and it may change the configuration of the network at any time.

These are just initial thoughts, but they provide a new perspective and potentially, a language for thinking about emergent threats that may help avoid biases, and the solidification of assumptions, that can lead to the following situation described in Zenko’s book:
Though we would now refer to this derisively as going native or clientism whereby people become incapable of perceiving a subject critically after years of continuous study any honest employee or staffer should recognise this all-pervasive phenomenon that results in organisational biases. This is particularly prominent in jobs that require deep immersion in narrow fields of technical or classified knowledge, and those that are characterised by rigid hierarchical authority the military is a clear example. Taken together, these common human and organisational pressures generally prevent institutions from hearing bad news, without which corrective steps will not be taken to address existing or emerging problems.

Rather than looking for efficiencies, our enemies are looking to create chaos, which can be a source of serendipity. Understanding serendipity then, may be a key to better adapting to the asymmetrical warfare we face.
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